There is no official U.S. government projection for gig economy growth. No federal agency forecasts it, and private estimates vary widely because they define "gig" differently. What is measured is the count of businesses with no employees — the Census Bureau's Nonemployer Statistics — and Federal Reserve survey data on how those firms finance themselves.
Is there an official gig economy growth projection?
No. The U.S. statistical system does not publish a gig economy forecast, and it does not publish a single official gig economy headcount either. The term has no standard statistical definition — depending on who is counting, it may mean app-based platform work only, all independent contracting, all self-employment, or every business without employees. Those definitions produce wildly different numbers, which is exactly why circulating projections disagree with each other so sharply.
This matters when you see a confident figure quoted. A projection that the gig economy will reach some particular size by some particular year is almost always a private estimate built on a private definition, and it is rarely comparable to the next estimate you read. The honest approach is to work from what is actually measured rather than from a forecast, and to say plainly which measure you are using.
How the government actually measures independent and gig work
The closest official measure is the Census Bureau's Nonemployer Statistics programme, which counts U.S. businesses that have no paid employees other than the owner. Census itself frames the series as capturing gig economy activity, and publishes annual receipts data by industry. The most recent reference year available is 2023, which is worth knowing: nonemployer data is released with a substantial lag, so it describes where independent work has been rather than where it is going.
The coverage rule is specific and shapes what the numbers mean. To appear in Nonemployer Statistics a business must have no paid employees, be subject to federal income taxes, and have annual receipts of $1,000 or more — or $1 or more in the construction sector. That threshold sweeps in genuinely small side operations alongside full-time independent businesses, so the count measures activity rather than anyone's livelihood.
Because the data is drawn from tax records rather than a survey, it is comprehensive but slow, and it says nothing about hours worked or whether the owner considers the business their main job. Any statement about gig economy growth built on this series should be phrased as growth in the number of nonemployer businesses, which is a narrower and more defensible claim.
What the data shows about solo firms that want to grow
The Federal Reserve Banks' Small Business Credit Survey is the strongest source on how nonemployer firms finance themselves, and its 2025 report on nonemployer firms separates businesses that plan to hire in the next 12 months from those that do not. The difference in financing behaviour is stark. Among early-stage firms that plan to hire — businesses zero to two years old — 58 percent had applied for new financing in the prior 12 months, with credit cards the most commonly sought product. Among later-stage firms planning to hire, 61 percent had applied.
Approval outcomes diverge just as sharply. Among nonemployer firms that applied for loans, lines of credit or merchant cash advances, 50 percent of early-stage would-be employers were denied, compared with 42 percent of later-stage would-be employers and 34 percent of stable nonemployers with no hiring plans. The firms trying hardest to grow are the ones being turned down most often.
That pattern is worth sitting with if you run a solo business. Wanting to hire pushes you toward outside capital, and being young when you ask is the single biggest factor working against you. The survey drew 5,955 responses from nonemployer firms across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, so this is a substantial sample rather than an anecdote.
What this means if you are a solo operator planning to hire
Time is the lever you control. Denial rates fall markedly between early-stage and later-stage firms in the survey data, which means that a few more months of documented revenue history frequently changes the answer you get. If your hiring plan can tolerate a short delay, using that time to build clean bank statements and consistent deposits is usually worth more than applying again immediately to the same place.
Where you apply matters as much as when. A single declined application tells you what one funder's guidelines are, not whether your business is fundable, and nonemployer firms are exactly the profile that different funders treat very differently. The Broker Shop is a funding broker, not a funder — one application reaches more than 50 competing lenders, including funders that work comfortably with newer and smaller operations. See the funding options, read up on funding with weaker credit, and keep an eye on cash flow management as you add your first payroll. It is free to apply, and checking your options won't affect your credit score.
One practical note: hiring your first employee changes your tax and payroll obligations, not just your cash flow. Ask a tax professional before the first hire rather than after.
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One 2-minute application is matched to the funders whose guidelines you meet. It's free, and checking your options won't affect your credit score.
See What I Qualify For →The bottom line: Treat any confident gig economy projection with caution — no federal agency publishes one — and work instead from Census nonemployer counts and Federal Reserve survey data, which show that solo firms trying to hire are also the ones most often declined.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau — Nonemployer Statistics · Federal Reserve Banks — 2025 Report on Nonemployer Firms, Small Business Credit Survey